Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States swung sharply into deficit in the first nine months of 2025, as exports to the American market declined steeply while imports more than doubled, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
An examination of NBS foreign trade figures shows that Nigeria exported goods valued at N3.65tn to the US between January and September 2025, down from N4.59tn recorded in the same period of 2024. The drop of N940.98bn represents a contraction of about 20.5 per cent year-on-year.
In contrast, imports from the US climbed dramatically to N6.80tn within the same nine-month period, compared with N3.01tn a year earlier. The increase of N3.78tn, or 125.5 per cent, meant Nigeria bought far more from the US than it sold, pushing the trade balance deeply into negative territory.
As a result, Nigeria posted a trade deficit of roughly N3.15tn with the US in Q1–Q3 2025, a sharp reversal from the N1.57tn surplus recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, The PUNCH reports.
This shift occurred against the backdrop of new US trade measures. In late July 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order under a “reciprocal” tariff framework, increasing Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent. The policy took effect on August 7, 2025.
While crude oil exports have largely remained exempt, the higher tariff applies to many non-oil Nigerian goods, creating uncertainty for US importers and weighing on demand before and after the implementation date.
Data suggests that non-oil exports were most affected. In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US rose steadily, increasing from N1.31tn in Q1 to N1.59tn in Q2 and N1.69tn in Q3. Imports during that period were relatively contained, averaging about N1tn per quarter. This produced trade surpluses in all three quarters and a cumulative surplus of N1.57tn over nine months.
The pattern changed markedly in 2025. Exports started at N1.54tn in Q1 but slipped to N1.36tn in Q2 before plunging to N743.63bn in Q3. Imports, meanwhile, accelerated rapidly, rising from N1.42tn in Q1 to N2.16tn in Q2 and then surging to N3.22tn in Q3.
Quarterly analysis shows exports fell by 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2 2025 and then dropped by a further 45.3 per cent between Q2 and Q3. Imports rose by 51.8 per cent in Q2 and another 49.1 per cent in Q3, widening the trade gap.
Year-on-year comparisons tell a similar story. Exports to the US increased by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 compared with Q1 2024, but fell by 14.3 per cent in Q2 and collapsed by 56.0 per cent in Q3. Imports grew strongly in every quarter, rising by 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2 and 209.4 per cent in Q3.
The export slowdown was severe enough for the US to drop out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by the second and third quarters of 2025, even though it remained one of the country’s largest sources of imports.
At the product level, NBS data shows that in Q1 2025 Nigeria’s exports to the US were still dominated by crude petroleum oils valued at N779.38bn. Other major items included urea (N240.17bn), kerosene-type jet fuel (N214.30bn), petroleum gases (N95.97bn) and cocoa beans (N58.84bn).
Imports in the same quarter were led by crude petroleum oils worth N726.84bn, followed by used diesel vehicles above 2,500cc (N93.51bn), lubricating oil additives (N60.12bn), soya beans (N45.04bn) and butanes (N32.85bn).
By Q2 2025, Nigeria’s export basket had narrowed considerably. Cocoa beans (N37.39bn) and urea (N106.44bn) featured prominently, alongside smaller volumes of natural rubber and leather products. Imports, however, expanded sharply, with crude petroleum oils alone valued at N1.34tn, in addition to wheat, used vehicles, motor spirit and denatured alcohol.
Exports weakened further in Q3 2025, consisting mainly of relatively low-value items such as soya bean flour (N23.60bn), cocoa powder preparations (N36.83m) and technically specified natural rubber (N5.03bn). Imports continued their upward trend, with crude petroleum oils rising to N2.31tn, alongside strong inflows of used vehicles, wheat and industrial plastics.
The figures underscore growing structural pressures in Nigeria’s trade position and highlight how exposed export earnings remain to shifts in external trade policy.
Reacting to concerns over the new US tariffs, President Bola Tinubu said in September that his administration was not worried about Washington’s trade policy direction. He pointed to Nigeria’s broader economic reforms and improving non-oil revenue base as buffers.
“If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side,” the President said.
Similarly, the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would not rush into retaliatory measures but would stay focused on reforms and diversification.
“Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole said.
She noted that although the US remains a key trading partner, Nigeria is deepening its African Continental Free Trade Area strategy and broadening its export destinations. According to her, non-oil exports grew by 24 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.
“It’s mostly an energy trading relationship, but we are waiting to see what happens with AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) in September. We are also growing exports to other African countries and expanding partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE,” she added.
Oduwole stressed that Nigeria would leverage South–South cooperation, accelerate export diversification and reduce reliance on the US market, even as industry stakeholders continue to urge Washington to reconsider the tariffs on Nigerian products.
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