Switzerland is heading towards a high-stakes referendum that could dramatically reshape its migration policy and its relationship with the European Union, as voters prepare to decide whether to freeze immigration once the country’s population reaches 10 million.
The proposal, championed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), would legally oblige the government to halt net immigration when the threshold is reached — something demographic projections suggest could happen in the 2030s. Crucially, the measure would require Switzerland to scrap free movement with the EU, raising the prospect of a Brexit-style confrontation with Brussels.
Polls indicate the idea is gaining traction. An opinion survey published this month found 48 per cent of voters already back the SVP’s so-called “sustainability initiative”, which the party has branded “No 10 Million Switzerland”.
“This referendum will certainly mobilise a lot of people and lead to a high turnout,” said Philipp Lutz, a Swiss political scientist at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. “It has a realistic chance of passing. That is why the political establishment is worried.”
The vote is expected to take place in June next year after a final parliamentary attempt to block it collapsed earlier this month. It marks a significant escalation in the SVP’s long-running campaign to curb migration.
From asylum to EU free movement
Immigration has been a flashpoint in Swiss politics for decades, despite the country’s international outlook and its role as host to United Nations agencies and global business elites.
While earlier SVP campaigns focused largely on asylum seekers and non-European migrants, the party has now broadened its sights to include EU citizens — a move that strikes at the heart of Switzerland’s bilateral agreements with Brussels.
The referendum comes as the SVP gears up to oppose a newly negotiated Switzerland-EU treaty, agreed this year after more than a decade of talks to streamline dozens of existing bilateral deals. The party, which enjoys near-record support of around 30 per cent in opinion polls, calls the agreement “the EU subjugation treaty”.
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Public concern is being fuelled by what many Swiss describe as dichtestress — “density stress” — the sense that the country is becoming overcrowded.
Housing has emerged as the dominant issue. Property prices are rising at roughly 5 per cent a year, while rents surged in 2024 at their fastest pace in more than three decades.
Business groups argue that restrictive planning laws, not migration, are the root cause.
“The approval process for building housing is extremely long and costly,” said Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse. “Immigrants are always blamed for these problems — not only in Switzerland.”
The SVP, however, places migration squarely at the centre of the housing crisis. It has launched a separate initiative dubbed “the right to a homeland”, focused on Zurich canton. Under the proposal, long-term residents would receive priority over newcomers when applying for rental properties if the national population exceeds 10 million.
“This is not about exclusion but about priorities,” said Domenik Ledergerber, an SVP politician in Zurich. “Those who have contributed to the canton for decades should not be disadvantaged compared to countless newcomers from the EU.”Switzerland Plans Migration Freeze if Population Reaches 10 Million
The business community has issued stark warnings, arguing that a migration freeze would damage Switzerland’s economy.
Around 30 per cent of the population holds foreign nationality, and roughly 40 per cent have a migration background. With a fertility rate of just 1.3 — among the lowest in Europe — employers say foreign workers are essential to sustaining growth.
“Switzerland has many Fortune 500 companies and world-class universities,” Mr Minsch said. “They depend on a highly qualified international workforce. Without immigration, productivity and living standards will suffer.”
Opponents of the SVP initiative argue that the new EU treaty already provides a safeguard, allowing Switzerland to temporarily curb free movement if migration becomes excessive. The SVP dismisses this mechanism as toothless, claiming it requires EU approval.
Swiss voters have previously rejected similar initiatives, including proposals to cap population growth at 0.2 per cent a year and to end freedom of movement altogether. But analysts say the political climate has shifted.
“Switzerland is at a crossroads,” Thomas Aeschi, the SVP’s parliamentary leader, wrote this week. “The course for the future of our country will be set in the second half of this parliamentary term.”
Even his opponents may struggle to dispute that assessment.
