…Crude earnings fall 14% as production lags targets
…Refining gains cut imports, boost export earnings
By Charles Ebi
Nigeria generated a total of $143.51bn from crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum product exports between 2023 and 2025, highlighting the continued centrality of the hydrocarbon sector to the country’s external earnings despite shifting trade dynamics.
The amount when converted to the naira during the three year period translates to about N174.35tn.
Analysis of the figures showed that the country earned $49.83bn in 2023. This translates to N31.45tn based on an average exchange rate of N633 to a dollar in 2023.
In 2024, the data showed that Nigeria earned $45.51bn which is about N70.9tn based on an average exchange rate of N1472 to a dollar during the year under review.
In the 2015 fiscal year, the earnings rose to $48.17bn (N72tn) based on an average exchange rate of N1,479 to a dollar dollar) according to data compiled from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Despite the strong cumulative earnings, Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy came under renewed pressure in 2025 as crude oil export receipts declined sharply, raising concerns about fiscal stability and the resilience of the external sector.
The CBN data indicated that crude oil export earnings dropped by $5.31bn year-on-year, falling from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025. The 14.41% decline reflects persistent production challenges, volatility in global oil prices, and structural inefficiencies within the petroleum industry.
The drop in crude earnings weighed on Nigeria’s current account position, with the surplus narrowing to $14.04bn in 2025 from $19.03bn recorded in 2024.
This trend underscores the continued reliance on crude oil exports as a major source of foreign exchange inflows, even as diversification efforts gradually gain traction.
Industry analysts say the development exposes long-standing structural vulnerabilities in the economy. Disruptions ranging from pipeline vandalism and oil theft to fluctuating global prices continue to have outsized effects on government revenues and the balance of payments.
However, the decline in crude export earnings is unfolding alongside a notable transformation in Nigeria’s oil and gas value chain, particularly in domestic refining capacity.
The operational ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is beginning to alter traditional trade patterns. Instead of exporting crude and importing refined products, Nigeria is increasingly processing crude locally and exporting refined petroleum products to international markets.
This shift is already reflected in trade performance. The country’s goods account recorded a higher surplus of $14.51bn in 2025, compared to $13.17bn in 2024, supported largely by increased exports of refined products.
The Dangote refinery alone accounted for exports valued at $5.85bn in 2025, signalling the growing importance of value-added petroleum products in Nigeria’s export mix.
At the same time, improved domestic refining significantly reduced reliance on fuel imports. Refined petroleum imports declined to $10bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in 2024, representing a 28.88 per cent drop. This helped ease pressure on foreign exchange demand and supported relative stability in the external sector.
Nonetheless, underlying pressures persist. Non-oil imports rose by 13.60% to $29.24bn, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods and services and highlighting the slow pace of diversification in the non-oil economy.
External obligations also intensified during the period. Net service outflows increased to $14.58bn in 2025, driven by higher spending on transportation, travel and insurance.
Similarly, outflows under the primary income account surged by 60.88% to $9.09bn, largely due to increased dividend repatriation and interest payments to foreign investors.
These pressures were partly offset by inflows from remittances and other secondary income sources, which stood at $23.20bn, although slightly lower than the $24.88bn recorded in 2024. Remittances continue to serve as a critical buffer for the country’s external sector.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government has intensified calls for increased oil production to take advantage of evolving global market conditions.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, urged operators to scale up output, describing Nigeria as a strategic destination for oil and gas investments capable of addressing emerging global supply gaps.
He called for the adoption of quick-win strategies, including re-entry programmes and in-field well development, to boost production in the short term.
Nigeria’s crude oil production rose marginally to 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026 from 1.422 million bpd in December 2025. However, output has remained below the 1.5 million bpd quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ,OPEC, for six consecutive months.
Production levels in February fluctuated between 1.31 million and 1.46 million bpd amid persistent challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism and underinvestment in the Niger Delta, remaining well below the government’s 2 million bpd target.
Lokpobiri also urged oil companies to accelerate Final Investment Decisions ,FIDs, to boost investor confidence and sustain growth momentum in the sector.
